Buy sneakers before release or wait? Four of six October drops got about a third cheaper
The Air Jordan 12 “Eggnog”, adidas AE 3 “Omen”, ST Charge and Air Force 1 “Hellraiser” all fell by about a third. Pharrell’s Adistar and Wembanyama’s G.T. Cut 4 held.
By Denis KataevFounder & Editor
For most of October’s big releases, waiting paid. We followed six pairs on the resale market from the first day they were listed to October 24: four got 32% to 40% cheaper, and two did not move at all.
| Pair | Release | First ask | Oct 24 | Change | Retail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Jordan 12 “Eggnog” | Oct 24 | $299 | $179 | −40% | $225 |
| adidas AE 3 “Omen” | Oct 23 | $162 | $110 | −32% | $130 |
| Nike ST Charge “Halloween” | Oct 23 | $250 | $170 | −32% | $145 |
| Nike Air Force 1 “Hellraiser” | Oct 26 | $238 | $158 | −34% | $140 |
| Pharrell x adidas Adistar Jellyfish “Red” | Oct 24 | $1,087 | $1,090 | 0% | $300 |
| Nike G.T. Cut 4 “Halloween” | Oct 23 | $500 | $499 | 0% | $210 |
The first ask is the cheapest new pair in sizes 8 to 12 on the first day we saw the pair listed: September 29 for the Jordan 12 and the Adistar, October 16 for the AE 3, ST Charge and Air Force 1, and October 21 for the G.T. Cut 4.
When the price fell
- The Jordan 12 “Eggnog” held at $291 for most of October and fell to $179 on October 20, four days before release. The full story.
- The AE 3 “Omen” sat at $162 until the day after its release, then fell to $110. The full story.
- The ST Charge “Halloween” came down in steps, from $250 to $230, $218, $190 and $170.
- The Air Force 1 “Hellraiser” fell from $238 to $158 before its October 26 release.
Two that held
The Adistar Jellyfish “Red” has asked about $1,090 since October 1, more than three and a half times its $300 retail. The G.T. Cut 4 “Halloween” has asked $499 to $500 in every size since it was listed.
What it means if you are buying
Two of the four that fell now sell under retail: the Jordan 12 by $46 and the AE 3 by $20. The other two still cost $18 to $25 more than retail. Six pairs is a small sample, so read this as a pattern rather than a rule: when a new pair asks far above retail before it drops, it often pays to wait a few days and set a price drop alert on its page. The Halloween pairs are in our roundup.
Prices from our Oct 24, 2026 check: the lowest price of a new pair with the original box, by US size. The model page always shows the latest prices.
